Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,244$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(444 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,189.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,189.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $101$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(14.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $96$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,776$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,070.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,070.6\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,917$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(347 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,881.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,881.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $559$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $231,139$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225,129.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(225,129.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,072$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(5.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,032.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(32,032.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,966$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,699,176$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,702,378.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,702,378.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $100,418$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(9.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,351.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,351.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,207,250$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $268,619$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271,565.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(271,565.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $37,542$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,498.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(36,498.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $229,911$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,088$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,351.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(37,351.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,220$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(409 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,156.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,156.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,897$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $181,524$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{173,398.8}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(173,398.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,428$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,206.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,206.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,276$ on 2020-05-27