Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Slovenia
  • New Zealand
  • Luxembourg
  • Thailand

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,244$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(444 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,189.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,189.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $101$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(14.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $96$ on 2020-05-27

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,776$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,070.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,070.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,917$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(347 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,881.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,881.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $559$ on 2020-05-27

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $231,139$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225,129.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(225,129.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,072$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,032.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(32,032.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,966$ on 2020-05-27

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,699,176$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,702,378.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,702,378.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $100,418$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(9.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,351.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 45.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,351.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,207,250$ on 2020-05-27

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $268,619$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271,565.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(271,565.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,542$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,498.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(36,498.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $229,911$ on 2020-05-27

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,088$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,351.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(37,351.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,220$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(409 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,156.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,156.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,897$ on 2020-05-27

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $181,524$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{173,398.8}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(173,398.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,428$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,206.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,206.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,276$ on 2020-05-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
New Zealand recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 97%
Switzerland recovered 96%
Thailand recovered 95%
Taiwan* recovered 95%
Croatia recovered 92%
Austria recovered 92%
Tunisia recovered 91%
Australia recovered 90%
Germany recovered 86%
Estonia recovered 85%
Japan recovered 85%
Slovakia recovered 84%
Cuba recovered 80%
Israel recovered 80%
Denmark recovered 79%
Turkey recovered 60%
Czechia recovered 56%
Georgia recovered 55%
Italy recovered 53%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 47%
Serbia recovered 39%
Jamaica recovered 34%
Romania recovered 33%
San Marino recovered 30%
Hungary recovered 30%
Morocco recovered 27%
Singapore recovered 25%
Paraguay recovered 18%
France recovered 11%
Bulgaria recovered 6%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,471$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(494 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,456.3}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,456.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(21.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(104.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-27

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,504$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(452 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,484.2}{1 + 10^{-0.098 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,484.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(6.09 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.0}{1 + 10^{-0.098 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(21.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-27

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,001$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,839.9}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,839.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(106.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100$ on 2020-05-27

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,054$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,979.9}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 19.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,979.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.6}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 10.7)}}\) (asimptote \(55.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-05-27